Tuesday, July 17, 2012

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #18 (OL Previews)

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FANTASYGURU.COM'S OFF-SEASON REPORT #18
Published, July 17, 2012
Copyright © 1995-2012
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved
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2012 Offensive Line Previews and Rankings
Published, 7/16/12
By Matt Camp and Joe Dolan, Senior Writers 

1. New England Patriots

Projected Starters:

Tackles: Nate Solder (24), Sebastian Vollmer (28)

Guards: Logan Mankins (30), Brian Waters(35)/Connolly

Center: Dan Connolly (29)/Dan Koppen (32)

 

Outlook:

Although LT Matt Light retired this off-season, and he might have been the Patriots’ best guy up front last year, the line still projects as a strength for this Patriot team, good news as it surrendered a solid 32 sacks last season, ranking in the top half for lines in the league. Light’s retirement allows Nate Solder and Sebastian Vollmer to handle the tackle jobs, but there’s also some depth and competition along the interior. C Dan Koppen is a favorite of Tom Brady, but he’ll have to beat out Dan Connolly for the starting job. Connolly can play a bit of a swingman, as can new acquisition Robert Gallery, who will back up Logan Mankins and Brian Waters at the guard spots but can also play tackle in a pinch. Gallery’s particularly important because Mankins partially tore (and played on) his ACL in the Super Bowl, and is not a guarantee to be ready for the regular season. Waters, as well, could be in an interesting spot as he was excused from mandatory minicamps for “personal reasons.” If he’s healthy and mentally right, he’ll play RG, but Connolly could be a fit there if he doesn’t win the center job. The Patriots have also been encouraged by the development of second-year man Marcus Cannon, who could take over at RT if Vollmer doesn’t progress as the team hopes. The Patriots will hope to improve on their subpar rankings in both rush YPG (110.2, 20th), and YPC (4.0, 21st), but a lot of that had to do with the mediocre backs as much as the line. There is a good balance of continuity on the interior and youth on the edges here, plus there’s some depth. Not only that, but Brady will make any offensive line look good, especially one with quality personnel. So this looks like a rock-solid unit for 2012.

 

2. Carolina Panthers

Projected Starters

Tackles: Jordan Gross (32), Jeff Otah (26)/Byron Bell (23)

Guards: Amini Silatolu (23) ®, Geoff Hangartner (30)

Center: Ryan Kalil (27)

 

Outlook:

This unit has been one of the more reliable groups in the last few years, but they do have some questions heading into 2012. RT Jeff Otah continues to deal with knee issues and there are worries that he won’t return to top form, especially after missing all but four games in the last two seasons. However, he’s expected to be ready for training camp and will need to hold off Byron Bell, who took over at RT when Otah went down last season. Rookie Amini Silatolu was installed at LG, replacing the departing Mackenzy Bernadeauand Travelle Wharton. That will sandwich Silatolu between a pair of really good veterans in LT Jordan Gross and C Ryan Kalil. Silatolu probably fits better as an OG at the pro level after dominating lower-level college talent at OT. This group continues to do be one of the best run-blocking groups, as evidenced by the 150.5 YPG (3rd most) and 5.4 YPC (most) they got out of their rushing attack last year. Of course, that was helped by one of the best RB combos in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, plus the running ability of QB Cam Newton. They should only be better with the signing of FB/RB Mike Tolbert, who comes over after a successful tenure in San Diego. The pass protection may have been below average, but they were near the middle of the pack with 35 sacks allowed. Besides what looks to be a very good starting five, they have decent depth with veterans like Bruce Campbell and Mike Pollak joining the team this off-season. Although there have been some changes, we’d expect this unit to being among the best once again in 2012.

 

3. New Orleans Saints

Projected Starters

Tackles: Jermon Bushrod (28), Charles Brown(25)/Zach Strief (29)

Guards: Ben Grubbs (28), Jahri Evans (29)

Center: Brian De La Puente (27)

 

Outlook:

The Saints have certainly gone through a tumultuous off-season, but not for the reasons they expected when the 2011 season ended. They had some of their best players heading into free agency and would have to make some tough decisions when it came to deciding who to keep, and who to let move on. After locking WR Marques Colston in on a long-term deal and hitting QB Drew Brees with the franchise tag (which would eventually turn into a new multi-year deal), it was obvious they wouldn’t have the money to bring back LG Carl Nicks, who ended up signing a huge deal to head to Tampa Bay. While Nicks was definitely the team’s best OL, they signed an adequate replacement in LG Ben Grubbs. Grubbs may not be as talented as Nicks, but it’s not a significant enough step down to consider the loss of Nicks to be a major issue. C Brian De La Puente may not have begun last season as the starter, but he did finish as one, so his presence shouldn’t be that big of a deal. The other possible change compared to last year may come at RT, where Charles Brown, who the team hoped would develop into their RT for the future, will look to unseat Zach Strief for the starting job. This unit was one of the best when it came to run blocking and the 132.9 YPG (6th most) and 4.9 YPC (tied for 4th) certainly proves that, although a great, diverse running game with players like Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, and Mark Ingram didn’t hurt either. Their pass protection was great with only 24 sacks allowed (tied for 3rd fewest), but a big part of that can be attributed to Brees, who is great at setting protections and getting rid of the ball before he can be brought down. We don’t see a lot of depth for this team, but it doesn’t worry us, especially with someone as good as Brees under center. Even with the changes, this should continue to be one of the best OLs in football.

 

4. Philadelphia Eagles

Projected Starters

Tackles: Demetress Bell (28), Todd Herremans (29),

Guards: Evan Mathis(30), Danny Watkins (27)

Center: Jason Kelce (24)

 

Outlook:

The Eagle OL has been unfairly criticized for their play over the last two seasons, when the really is that they’ve been pretty good. Unfortunately, when you have to block for a player like Michael Vick, who despite his immense talent, can be skittish with his play and decision-making. Contrary to popular belief, a QB like Vick, who breaks the pocket down and looks to run, can make life much tougher on his OL because he ends up breaking the protection on his own. The longer he takes to decide on whether he wants to throw it or run, the longer the line has to block for him. When he’s playing frenetically, he’s the antithesis of guys like Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, or Drew Brees, all of whom help their OL with their play. Getting away from how Vick hurts this group, let’s focus on why they look like a very nice group heading into 2012. The only change will come at LT, where Demetress Bell takes over for Jason Peters, who ruptured his Achilles in March and then again in May, which should keep him out for all of 2012. That’s a shame because he may have been the best OL in the league last year, but Bell isn’t a bad replacement. He has the skill set to be a good LT and will be coached up by OL coach Howard Mudd, who preaches the idea of attacking the defense, even in pass protection, which should work well with the athletic Bell. The interior has a great player in LG Evan Mathis and a serviceable RG in Danny Watkins, who struggled as a rookie in 2010. While their run blocking may not have been considered a strength, they still managed to finished 3rd in YPC at 5.1 and 5th in YPC at 142.2. Even with the issues with Vick, they only gave up 32 sacks, which put them among the top 10 in terms of fewest allowed. We definitely like this group and having good depth helps as well. Look for them to be one of the better units this season.

 

5. Cincinnati Bengals

Projected Starters:

Tackles: Andrew Whitworth (30), Andre Smith (25)

Guards: Travelle Wharton (31), Kevin Zeitler (22) ®

Center: Kyle Cook (29)

 

Outlook:

With a QB like Andy Dalton, we’ve been saying since last year that the Bengals need to build the rest of their roster properly to have success. And for the most part they’ve done that, including up front. Last year the Bengals surrendered only 25 sacks, 5th fewest in the NFL. And despite that, they’re not done tinkering. The Bengals had a solid line in 2011, but the club thought it could improve on the interior, given underwhelming rushing averages of 111.1 YPG (19th) and 3.9 YPC (tied for 26th). Veteran guards Bobbie Williams and Nate Livings are gone, and they’re replaced with another veteran in LG Travelle Wharton (signed away from Carolina), and an extremely gifted rookie in RG Kevin Zeitler (a first-round pick). The Bengals are hoping that their new guards fit their power scheme well alongside C Kyle Cook, and that LT Andrew Whitworth (who said this month that he had issues with tendinitis in his left leg) improves in the run game, although he’s been fantastic as a pass protector in recent years. RT Andre Smith showed up to minicamps in shape, believe it or not, and the Bengals are looking strong up front if their core five can gain chemistry and stay healthy. The biggest issue we perceive is depth, with Otis Hudson, Anthony Collins, Clint Boling, and Dennis Roland (they had also signed veteran Jacob Bell, but Bell opted to retire, which was a big blow to the depth). Overall, the Bengals wanted to run the ball better last year, and it makes sense that they’ve revamped the interior of the line with a high-upside rookie and a solid pro. But again, if the starters keep on the field, there’s no reason this shouldn’t be one of the best lines in the league, which is great news for Dalton in his second year (and Dalton, as an anticipation thrower, also makes a line look better).

 

6. Houston Texans

Projected Starters:

Tackles: Duane Brown (27), Rashad Butler (29)

Guards: Wade Smith (31), Antoine Caldwell (26)

Center: Chris Myers (30)

 

Outlook:

The Texans were in a pretty dire cap situation this off-season, and outside of the loss of DE Mario Williams, no place felt the sting as much as the offensive line. It’s a shame, because the Texans had one of the better lines in football last season – their 33 sacks surrendered were in the better half of the league, and their rushing performance with the zone-blocking scheme was magnificent (2nd with 153 YPG, 7th with 4.5 YPC). But money talks, and the club had to let go the right side of its offensive line as a result. RT Eric Winston was cut and signed with the Chiefs (the Texans gave a failed physical as the reason, but money was the motivator), and RG Mike Brisiel signed a big deal with the Raiders. The Texans will plug in veteran Rashad Butler at RT (he is still recovering from surgery on his elbow and triceps, so they’re crossing their fingers), and fourth-year man Antoine Caldwell is expected to be recovered from a high ankle sprain to play RG, although he might see some competition from rookie Brandon Brooks, a huge kid but a freak athlete who can really move for his size (343 pounds). Fortunately, QB Matt Schaub’s blindside will be well protected, as LT Duane Brown has become a very good player (you might argue he’s a top-five LT in football, and coach Gary Kubiak specifically pointed him out last month for having a strong off-season), and LG Wade Smith is also a pretty steady asset. C Chris Myers will be snapping the ball once again and was signed to a four-year extension, and he’s excellent, although he’s getting up there in age – on that note, we also like rookie C Ben Jones out of Georgia (he can also play guard). Really, the biggest questions here are on the right side, and whether or not Brooks or Jones will have a chance to unseat Caldwell. But the Texans don’t think it’ll matter either way, given their zone scheme. While the Texans had to make some moves along the front, they should have enough talent up front to keep the ship steady, and RB Arian Foster should continue to make everyone look good.

 

7. Kansas City Chiefs

Projected Starters:

Tackles: Branden Albert (27), Eric Winston (28)

Guards: Ryan Lilja (30), Jon Asamoah (24)

Center: Rodney Hudson (24)

 

Outlook:

Last year, things weren’t bad for the Chiefs up front (they surrendered 34 sacks, in the better half of the league), but they have room to improve, especially on the right side of the line and in the run game. The Chiefs lucked out when the Texans made starting RT Eric Winston a cap casualty, as the Chiefs were then able to lock up one of the league’s best RTs to a four-year, $22 million deal. Winston did undergo arthroscopic ankle surgery in February (which the Texans used as an excuse to cut him), but he said it’s fine. He will immediately start at RT in place of Barry Richardson, who signed with the Rams, and Ryan O’Callaghan. A healthy Winston on the right side of the line represents a massive upgrade, and Winston has been a fantastic run blocker with the Texans for a few years now. The other change is at center, where Casey Wiegmann retired after a decade anchoring the Chief line. In his place, look for 2011 2nd-round pick Rodney Hudson to step up in his second year, which the Chiefs are expecting (the club loves Hudson). Otherwise, the rest of the line remains in place with LT Branden Albert, LG Ryan Lilja, and RG Jon Asamoah. Albert, in particular, has consistently improved to become one of the best left tackles. He’s entering a contract year, and the Chiefs could look to extend him as early as this summer if he continues to progress. The top backups here will be rookie LT Donald Stephenson and swingman David Mims, plus rookie G Jeff Allen, who could look to unseat Lilja in a year or so. The hope for the Chiefs is that Hudson lives up to the internal hype they’ve built for him, Winston comes in and provides a stabilizing force on the right side of the line, and the return of a healthy Jamaal Charles and the addition of Peyton Hillis help the club improve on a 15th-ranked 118.3 rush YPG and a 26th-ranked 3.9 YPC in 2011. Those could be good bets to make.

 

8. Denver Broncos

Projected Starters:

Tackles: Ryan Clady (26), Orlando Franklin (24)

Guards: Zane Beadles (25), Chris Kuper (29)

Center: J.D. Walton (25)

 

Outlook:

Hey, we have some good news for Peyton Manning! For the first time in seemingly forever, it doesn’t look like he’ll have to act as his team’s best offensive lineman with his superhuman internal clock. This group of Broncos, although it has some questions, looks like a better line than Manning has had in Indy in years. Statistically, it was a fantastic line last year for the run – the Broncos ranked 1st in the NFL in rush YPG (164.5), 6th in YPC (4.8). But it also gave up 42 sacks, tied for 9th most in the NFL. All that said, it’s important to disregard those numbers, as a Tim Tebow led offense is going to skew numbers in a ridiculous manner (he doesn’t know how to “help” a line), and Peyton couldn’t be a more “opposite” type of QB. Personnel-wise, however, the Bronco offensive line won’t look much different this year. The biggest question is RG, where Chris Kuper is still recovering from a nasty broken ankle from Week Seventeen. The good news is that Kuper is expected to be ready for training camp, as Russ Hochstein, the man who replaced Kuper in the playoffs, is a free agent. If for some reason Kuper isn’t ready, veteran Manny Ramirez figures to be the top backup. Elsewhere Ryan Clady and Orlando Franklin are the tackles, with J.D. Walton at center and Zane Beadles at LG. Clady is strong, and the Broncos would like to sign him long-term, and Franklin, one of the toughest linemen in football, got better as the season went on. The Broncos also brought back veteran Ryan Harris as a tackle backup, and he was a great player before injuries sidelined his career. What could be really interesting is the center spot. Walton was bad last year, and the Broncos used a 4th-round pick on Baylor G/C Philip Blake, who provides depth and hopefully some insurance for both Walton and Kuper. Manning can often compensate for a weak offensive line, but the Broncos certainly don’t want to take any chances given that Manning is coming off an injury and missed time for the first time in his career. We think depth could be an issue here, but overall this is a gifted line, especially if Kuper is healthy and the center situation stabilizes. The individual talent here is significantly better than what Manning had his last few years in Indy.

 

9. Baltimore Ravens

Projected Starters:

Tackles: Bryant McKinnie (32), Michael Oher (26)

Guards: Bobbie Williams (35)/Jah Reid (24), Marshal Yanda (27)

Center: Matt Birk (36)

 

Outlook:

There’s a catch-22 along the offensive line for the Ravens. The Ravens count on their zone-blocking line to stabilize their offense, great news because RB Ray Rice is fantastic behind it. The numbers back that up, as the Ravens ranked 10th in the NFL with 124.8 rush YPG and tied for 12th with 4.3 YPC last year. But the line is important in keeping the offensive moving in large part because QB Joe Flacco has been inconsistent under pressure in his NFL career. It might be an issue, then, that the interior of their line looks stronger and deeper than the tackle positions (although the Ravens were in the better half of the league, surrendering 33 sacks last season). C Matt Birk has been good seemingly forever, RG Marshal Yanda is one of the top players at his position in the NFL (the Ravens just had to restructure his big-money deal to clear cap space), and Baltimore added two quality prospects in 2nd-round pick Kelechi Osemele and 4th-rounder Gino Gradkowski. Osemele, a raw but insanely gifted athlete, has a chance to compete for the LG job vacated by Ben Grubbs, although a quad injury has sidelined him for an extended period this off-season (that makes veteran pickup Bobbie Williams the favorite), and Gradkowski could be the heir apparent to Birk at C. We do worry about the tackle spots, where LT Bryant McKinnie isn’t very good (and has back problems) and RT Michael Oher hasn’t lived up to his promise (he was poor in pass protection last year, bending too much at the waist). This could be a good unit if McKinnie can hang on for one more year and Oher can stabilize, but it could be decidedly mediocre if neither happens. Depth could also be an issue – second-year man Jah Reid can play inside or out, but we don’t think he’s a good fit on the interior and he struggled last year. If McKinnie has problems and they can’t get solid play out of Reid or Ramon Harewood, Flacco could be taking shots from his blindside. Overall, we like this line, but there’s no doubt it’s in better shape for the run than the pass.

 

10. Pittsburgh Steelers

Projected Starters:

Tackles: Mike Adams (22) ®, Marcus Gilbert (24)

Guards: Willie Colon (29), David DeCastro (22) ®

Center: Maurkice Pouncey (23)

 

Outlook:

It’s amazing what a difference a year makes. It was inarguable that the Steelers had one of the worst lines in football the last few years, and the numbers back it up, at least in the passing game. They surrendered the 9th-most 42 sacks a season ago. But some good fortune and a willing risk in the 2012 NFL Draft has things looking up for the Steelers, who are now young and, more importantly, deep up front. But the infusion of talent also means there’s some significant change up front, which means there could be some growing pains. There is a legitimate chance that only C Maurkice Pouncey is starting in the same position in 2012 as 2011. First and foremost, the Steelers made a concerted effort to add youth and upside to this line, drafting RG David DeCastro in the 1st round to replace the departed Chris Kemoeatu, and OT Mike Adams in the 2nd. DeCastro is a grinder who plays the “Steeler way,” tough and mean in the run game. Adams is a perceived first-round talent with off-field issues, but if the Steelers can get him to pull it all together, he could be considered a legitimate steal because he’s supremely gifted and has the ideal skillset for playing LT. With oft-injured RT Willie Colon moving to LG, Adams should well start at either LT or RT, with Marcus Gilbert or Jonathan Scott at the other spot (Gilbert has the inside track, and he was probably the Steelers’ most consistent lineman last year). Adams signed his contract early and was working exclusively at LT in minicamps, which could tip the Steelers’ hand. If we had to take a guess, Adams will start at LT, with Colon, Pouncey, DeCastro, and Gilbert at the remaining spots from right to left. Scott, G Trai Essex, C Doug Legursky, and G Ramon Foster will provide the main depth. And given the injuries the club has suffered in recent years, each of those players has valuable starting experience. If everything comes together, this is probably the most gifted offensive line Ben Roethlisberger has ever had, and that’s good news for the run game as well, since it appears more and more unlikely that Rashard Mendenhall (ACL) will be ready to start the season. Remember that although Ben can improvise, he has improved greatly in the pocket, and he should have a safer pocket to throw from with this young and talented group in front of him.

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